Tuesday, December 20, 2005



  • “The Muslim Brotherhood would win,” he said. “They would beat Mubarak and the liberals.” I was afraid he was going to say that......... It is much more liberal in Algeria because there they have tasted Islamism. Egypt does need to experience what happened in Iran and Algeria…as long as I am in the U.S. or Canada when it happens.”

Iranian Shia parties have apparently swept the elections. Allawi's secular party as well as Chalabi will now get -0- seats in the Parliament. There were reports of Iran bringing in truck loads of phoney votes, but nothing confirmed yet on the election fraud front.

The Islamists will do anything to take over and simply try and murder any liberal who speaks otherwise.

Talisman reports from Iraq -

  • Analyses: These were the numbers released by Adel Al-Lami of the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq in a press conference today. Many people, including myself, are in disbelief. Personally, these numbers translate into no seats, not even compensatory ones, for either Ahmad Chalabi (who I worked with for seven years) or Mithal Al-Alusi (a close friend who I voted for in these elections and the previous ones).

    Having had the opportunity of a front-row seat during the INC years, I find it heartbreaking that Chalabi—without whom these elections would have never happened—be so crushed. Al-Alusi, whose bravery and fortitude for the cause of a secular and liberal Iraq, even after the murder of his two sons last February, was an inspiration.

  • Even people like Abdel-Karim Al-Mohammadawi, the so-called 'Prince of the Marshes,' who bravely fought Saddam for 15 years under terrible odds, will walk away with nothing. To watch Iraq lose some of its best political talent at this critical time makes me very afraid.

    At least judging by Al-Alusi’s numbers, I’d say that somewhere along the line his votes in the southern provinces evaporated. He wasn’t doing so well, but he was ratcheting-up numbers in places like Najaf, Karbala and Basra, according to my sources at the vote-counting process. I can’t say for sure, but at point I think Al-Alusi was cheated of some 18,000 votes in these three provinces. It is too early to point fingers, but there are early indicators of foul play at hand. According to Al-Lami, Chalabi only got 2,723 votes in Basra Province, which doesn’t make sense given that Chalabi’s list in this province included political and tribal heavy-weights like Salamah Al-Khafaji (an inspiring woman whose son was killed last year), Saad Al-‘Aidani and Muzahim Al-Timeemi.

    Allawi did very poorly too. It is rumored that he has already left Iraq in a huff, although the source is not totally credible. But whichever way one looks at it, Allawi is out of the picture.

    Which leaves us, incidentally, with all the people Iran has been cultivating for decades as the soon-to-be-crowned heads of the Shia community. They will have to do business with the soon-to-be-crowned heads of the Sunni community, who are loathed by ordinary Shias. Adnan Al-Dulaimi, the head of the largest Sunni block ‘The Consenses,’ was elected by a strictly sectarian bias; Sunnis did not listen to him or his allies in the Islamic Party when they called for voting ‘yes’ on the constitution back in October. So, Al-Dulaimi is hobbled by the fact that his constituency controls him rather than the other way around, and thus he must stand as a hardliner against policies such as de-Ba’athification, which would further aggravate the Shia.

    The distribution of parliamentary blocks that I had predicted a day after the elections hold true. I got a lot of flack for it. More than anything in the world, I had hoped to be mistaken. Guess I wasn’t, and now Iraq really does need a miracle.


  • Reading the results in some detail on al-Sabah this morning, some of the numbers caught my attention and I’m talking here about the number of votes achieved by local small lists or individual candidates in the southern provinces.
    The numbers I read were simply ridiculous and here are a few examples from Maysan:

    -Lawyer Abdulwahid al-Lami is from the Lami tribe, the biggest in a province that euns by tribal relations. This candidate won 5 votes, yes 5 votes!
    This means this man didn’t even the votes of his own family…it doesn’t make sense. It is as if the man paid 1 million dinar for each vote since the registration fee for candidacy is 5 million dinars. Heh.

    -Sheikh Raheem al-Sa’idi was also running from Maysan and he’s a local sheikh of a big tribe that has many thousands of members in the south. This sheikh won 17 votes only!
    A usual sheikh is married to at least 3 wives and has dozens of children, brothers and cousins and this one won 17 votes only!

    The reason why such numbers are totally ridiculous is because for any party or candidate to register, the commission asks them to bring 500 signatures from supporters!

    It is clear that many parties and candidates were marginalized and betrayed by the election commission.

    What the commission announced in the above update is just a futile attempt to relieve the growing tension in Iraq.

    It is obvious now that the Sh’eat-Kurdish dominated commission which we hoped would act with integrity and transparency closed an eye on the violations committed by the Kurdish and religious She’at parties.

    The Iraqi list of Allawi in another reaction said that they commission received 23 alerts of “Red Flag” complaints which represent the highest level of violations, a spokesman of the list said they will obstruct the formation of the new government if the commission ignored those complaints.


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